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09 March 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #456
War in Ukraine: Day 378
By Padmashree Anandhan
War on the Ground
On 08 March, Ukraine’s state energy entity’s Head, reported on growing difficulty for Ukraine in meeting the power shortage while new Russian attacks take place. The Head remarked that the worst winter was over but the recurring attacks on the energy grids of Ukraine has resulted in power outages, scare heating and water.
On 08 March, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres arrived to Ukraine to meet Zelenskyy. The discussion centered on the extension of the grain deal. Guterres stressed on the independence and continuity of the deal. According to him, the deal which is about to expire had helped in reducing the global food cost and has helped in critical segment of people from paying high prices. He added: “We will continue to support solutions for humanitarian problems wherever possible on every front.”
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 08 March, RT reported on position of Russia’s military in Bakhmut. The Wagner Group Head Evgeny Prigozhin claimed of capturing the eastern part of the city. On the same, a video from the zone along with T-34 tank was released. The report also indicated the confirmation of ISW think tank on the capture.
On 08 March, RT reported on Zelenskyy’s comments on Ukraine’s goal in Bakhmut. In the report, the capturing of Bakhmut by Russia would mean link to reach Kramatorsk and Slavyansk giving Russia advantage to move further towards Donetsk.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 08 March, in the EU Defence Ministers meet, they announced the investment of EUR two billion toward purchase of artillery shells and rounds for Ukraine. Estonia’s Defence Minister proposed its plan to the EU, stating the assured investment might be insufficient and stressed on the EU to spend EUR four billion in purchasing one million 155mm shells for Ukraine.
On 08 March, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned that Bakhmut might fall, but it would not decide the larger gamut of war. He stressed on the US and Europe to speed up the military production as the consumption rate is much higher.
On 08 March, Poland’s President Andrej Duda announced the intension to support Ukraine with MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine and to also consider US F-16 in the future. He said: “We are ready to deliver these aircraft and I am sure Ukraine would be ready to use them immediately.”
On 08 March, the White House released a statement on the call held between the US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron. The discussion was on efforts to continue the support for Ukraine in the second year along with addressing the challenges posed by China in the world order.
On 08 March, Sweden’s Ministry for Foreign Affairs announced EUR 11 million aid to support Ukraine’s women and girls. The provided aid aimed to help humanitarian aid and create opportunities for both short and long term. It will also support the health care infrastructure. According to Minister for International Development Cooperation: “These earmarked funds can be used for…. clinics, equipment to prevent maternal and infant mortality, and protection and support for victims of conflict-related sexual violence.”
On 08 March, the German Federal Ministry of Defense during the EU Defence Ministers meeting announced its target to train 9000 soldiers of Ukraine armed forces by 2023. The meeting mainly focuses on discussion efforts to improve military aid to Ukraine.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the war
On 08 March, the IMF initiated discussion with Ukraine official to create a “cooperation” programme. In a statement: “An IMF mission, led by Gavin Gray, starts policy discussions today with the Ukrainian authorities on a potential Fund-supported program.” The IMF team is expected to work on the agenda of the programme from 08 to 15 March from Poland.
On 08 March, South Korea along with Poland agreed to supply howitzers to Ukraine that are manufactured with “components” from South Korea. The weapon systems known as “Krab” has been claimed by the South Korea’s Defence Ministry as holder of components from many countries and not narrowing to South Korea alone.
References
“Readout of President Joe Biden’s Call with President Emmanuel Macron of France,” whitehouse.gov, 08 March 2023
“IMF mission kicks off discussions with Ukraine on new program,” Ukrinform, 08 March 2023
“Sweden provides almost EUR 11 million in support to women and girls in Ukraine and Moldova,” government.se, 08 March 2023
“Wagner chief reports progress in key Donbass city,” RT, 08 March 2023
“Zelensky explains why he’s so determined to hold key Donbass city,” RT, 08 March 2023
“In Ukraine, Guterres pledges to keep seeking ‘solutions and a just peace’,” news.un.org, 08 March 2023
“9,000 Ukrainian soldiers to undergo training in Germany this year,” Ukrinform, 08 March 2023
“Ukraine updates: EU agrees to start joint arms procurement,” Deutsche Welle, 08 March 2023
“NATO Secretary General at EU Defence Ministerial: we must boost ammunition stockpiles, ramp up production,” nato.int, 08 March 2023
IN BRIEF
By Femy Francis
ESTONIA
Reform party to form coalition with Eesti 200 and Social Democratic Party
On 07 March, Kaja Kallas Reform party, the winner of Estonia elections announced their coalition invitation to Eesti 200 and Social Democratic Party. The Reform Party was able to lock 37 seats where the other two would make them into a 60 seat coalition. Kallas expressed her reason to invite the parties as mutuality of interests said: “Security, the green transition and people's welfare ended up the deciding factors,” The party also announced its aims to eliminate “Tax Hump” where most of nominal wages goes up. (“Kaja Kallas: Reform inviting Eesti 200, Social Democrats to coalition talks,” ERR News, 07 March 2023)
GEORGIA
Mass protests over Foreign Agent bill
On 08 March, Georgia saw massive protests against the Foreign Agent” bill where 15,000 protestors gathered. The protest turned violent with clashes between police and people as they threw stones and petrol bombs trying to break barriers. This led police to detain 66 individuals for “petty hooliganism” and disobeying the police stated the Interior Ministry. This bill was proposed to promote “Transparency of Foreign Influence," where any organization whose international funding exceeds 20 per cent would be quoted as “foreign agents.” The bill has gained criticism as the law will reduces possibility of Georgia joining the EU and due to the similarities with Russia's law. (“Georgia: Dozens arrested during 'foreign agent' law protest,” Deutsche Welle, 08 March 2023)
GREECE
Massive protest against the train crash
On 08 March, Greece saw thousands around 50,000 protestors striking against the deadliest Train crash which killed 57 individuals. The strike has brought the nation to a halt where the labor unions have stopped the ferries and disrupted public transportation. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis blamed the crash on human error, while the rail workers have been striking demanding for better working conditions. There plans to conduct a bigger strike until the protestors will get the government to impose safer railways. (“Train crash protests: Strikes bring much of Greece to a halt,” Deutsche Welle, 08 March 2023)
LATVIA
Soaring inflationary price hike for 20.4 per cent
On 08 March, Centre Statistical Bureau (CSB) reported that Latvia saw a 20.4 per cent rise in inflation prices. Compared to Europe where the inflation would reach 8.5 per cent, Latvia's inflation is more than double. In Latvia prices for food went up by 25.3 per cent, heat energy by 66.4 per cent, electricity 90.2 percent and Natural gasses 79.5 per cent. Difference between one month of January and February prices has been increased by 0.6 per cent. The government predicts that possibility of lowering of inflationary prices would be based on the fluctuation of fuel prices. (“Inflation level remains over 20% in Latvia,” Latvian Public Broadcasting, 08 March 2023)
THE NETHERLANDS
Impose restriction on semiconductor technology sales to China
On 08 March, Netherlands decided to to impose restrictions on semiconductor technology exports to China stating to protect its national security. They now have joined the US where in October restricted exports of chip making tools to China and to make it more effective it required other key exporters Japan and Netherlands to agree to halting the shipment as well. The provision lays emphasis on “DUV” technology that would be affected the most which is ASML’s second largest product sold to China. ASML, a Dutch company exports to China for about EUR 2.2 billion in the year of 2023 as the sales grow to only 25 per cent. (“Netherlands to restrict chip exports after US pressure over China threat,” Financial Times, 08 March 2023)
REGIONAL
EU plans for 40 per cent green tech production to be developed within
On 07 March, Guardian reported that EU plans under Net Zero Industry Act want to focus 40 per cent of green tech production to be made within Europe, a counter measure against US and China. This comes in light against the US inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that would subsidize green technology production by giving a budget of USD 369 billion, with China's growing influence as importers give them a monopoly of consuming power. The IRA bill has been heavily criticized by EU leaders and policy makers; the new bill would be further discussed during the Brussels Summit. The net zero bill proposes that large plant producers would be getting permit within a year to hasten the production process and would ask EU companies to reduce dependence on imports. (Jennifer Rankin, “EU targets 40% of clean tech to be made within the bloc by 2030,” The Guardian, 07 March 2023)
INTERNATIONAL
UK, US and Australia joint venture for Aukus pact
On 08 March, Financial Times reported that the UK will play a more prominent role in Australia's nuclear submarine development Aukus deal, a joint venture between UK, US and Australia. The three nations leaders plan to meet on 13 March and discuss the future planning. The Aukus pact came as a venture to counter Chinese developments and military aggression. The meeting is expected to unveil the design proposed for the submarine which would be a hybrid design matching the pragmatic needs for Australia. Rishi Sunak mentioned to his colleagues that the negotiations were a “Success for Britain”. (“Britain to play bigger role in Aukus submarine deal than envisaged” Financial Times, 08 March 2023)
Volkswagen plans to halt battery plan in Europe
On 08 March, Volkswagen announced that they are planning to halt battery plant projects from eastern Europe. This comes after the US Inflation Reduction Act aiding with a USD 369 billion package where now companies like Volkswagen have started to prioritize facilities in North America reckoning to get USD 10 billion in financing. The US incentives subsidies on green technology, luring companies to invest in their deals. The new bill faced much criticism from the EU due to which they came up with their own green deal to counter the US offer. The Volkswagen company have started looking at the US over Germany for their factory location. (“VW puts European battery plant on hold as it seeks €10bn from US,” Financial Times, 08 March 2023)
NATO discussed the role of technology and gender parity on women's day
On 08 March, as part of the Women's Day initiative NATO held a conference with panels across the alliance. They deeply discourse on the role of women and gender parity with its effect on the future. The meeting was titled “Innovators and Game Changers: Women in Tech Shaping the Future,” discussing gender equality and the role of technology to bridge the gap. Irene Fellin Nato’s special Representative for Women, talked about how the digital gap can be further dissected to the level of gender parity stating, “we must all work together to bridge the major gender gap in technology. Across the NATO Enterprise, with partners, industry and academia… By including women in science and tech, you take on more brain power, more ideas, more creativity. That is what we need, what NATO needs, what all of us need.” They discussed the role of women in the Tech industry and that while there has been a rise in the role of women in the industry it is far from being equal. With time and progressing technology would play a vital role in security and military domain therefore a push has to be engaged in to look into developments through the lens of gender. (“NATO marks International Women’s Day with conference on gender equality in technology,” nato.int, 08 March 2023)
NATO to provide Jordanian women’s military with transportation facilities
On 05 March, Nato’s Defence Capacity Building (DCB) provided women’s Jordanian armed forces with buses. The donation was made by Australia and Netherlands to the Military Women’s Training Centre (MWTC) who were facing the issue of transportation to train their women in combat. To address these two 23-seater buses were delivered that would cover the distance of eight kilometres, this would facilitate training and education of the women. (“NATO delivers buses to the Military Women’s Training Centre of Jordan,” nato.int, 08 March 2023)